Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Draw likely in Newcastle/Portsmouth, English Premiership at BetUK

Newcastle is in real trouble in second-to-last place in the English Premier League. They need a win so badly but haven’t exactly stepped up a gear since the arrival of former player and Geordie hero Alan Shearer as manager.

At 4/5 we don’t think they are very good value to win tonight’s game with Portsmouth (live on Setanta 1 at 8pm).

On paper this home fixture against bottom half Portsmouth is the most winnable of Shearer’s four matches in charge of Newcastle to-date.

Though the Magpies have failed to win at St James’s Park in seven games since before Christmas, they have faced all of the Big Four and two of the other top seven in that period.

When bottom half opposition has visited St James’s Park this season, the Magpies have drawn four and lost once in seven. Similarly, Portsmouth has failed to win away to a bottom four team in eight attempts since 2007, drawing five times. Where a drawn outcome may appeal, the stats are even more compelling for both teams to score.

Both teams have scored in all seven of Newcastle’s home games against bottom half teams this term, whilst the same scenario occurred in six of Pompey’s eight matches on the road to bottom four teams since 2007.

So, with all this in mind what we could be looking at here is a high-scoring draw. We suggest backing two of the 1-1 and 2-2 score lines, at 6/1 and 14/1 respectively with sports betting uk. A sensible play might also be to cover your stakes with a bet on over 2.5 goals at evens too.

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