Friday, October 30, 2009

Mark Kavanagh would Win Tomorrow's Victoria Derby at Flemington??

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If such a thing as poetic justice existed in horse racing, then Mark Kavanagh would win tomorrow's Victoria Derby at Flemington.

BetRepublic through its free horse racing tips, giving a clue to all the horse racing betting people about the winning chances of Mark Kavanagh at Victoria Derby.

Kavanagh saddles up the favourite, Shamoline Warrior, in the $1.5 million event in a bid to extract some glory from a spring carnival that has yet to deliver all he had hoped.

In the past month the trainer has lost stable stars Maldivian and Cats Whisker to injury, and last week he watched his champion Whobegotyou go under in the Cox Plate as a short-priced favourite.

Whobegotyou ran second in last year's Derby behind Rebel Raider, which, ironically, is the half-brother to Shamoline Warrior which bolted in the Norman Robinson Stakes (2,000m) a fortnight ago.

Kavanagh told this morning's Derby media conference that he did not know whether Shamoline Warrior can stay the distance.

"It's a pretty strong Derby. There's a rap on a lot of horses and the 2,500 metres is certainly the key to the whole race," he said.

"We have set him specifically for this race and he's done everything to please us along the way. There's been no hiccups."

Rebel Raider had not won his Derby when Kavanagh spent his budget to buy Shamoline Warrior for a syndicate of owners who had given him only $60,000.

"At the time [Shamoline Warrior] was a bit of an ugly duckling but he's certainly a swan now," Kavanagh said.

"There's no doubt this race is a maker of champions. He might have cost $400,000 or $500,000 [if Rebel Raider been a Derby winner then]."

Rain Forecast

Shamoline Warrior has three wins and a second on dead tracks and the prospect of further rain in Melbourne should not dent his chances.

Derby day racegoers have been told to prepare for anything as inclement weather settles on the city.

A spokesman for the Weather Bureau says storms and showers are forecast for Melbourne tonight and again tomorrow.

He says it is hit and miss whether Flemington will see much rain, which would take the edge off the track after a week of warm and dry conditions.

Track manager Mick Goodie says Flemington was rated a dead 4 and that little rain had been registered this morning.

For more horse racing betting picks & are available at BetRepublic Horse racing Betting tips.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

JARNO TRULLI says, I can't wait for practice to begin

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Panasonic Toyota Racing reaches the end of a successful season with a trip to the United Arab Emirates for the first-ever Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, held on the new Yas Marina Circuit. Not only is this weekend's race held at a new venue, it is also held in unique conditions with the race starting in daylight at 5pm local time but finishing in darkness and under floodlights 55 laps later.

The track, which will become the 67th to hold a Formula 1 World Championship race, winds its way around Yas Marina through a series of 90° turns but also includes two long back straights where the cars are expected to reach over 300km/h.

Toyota is looking to add to the 54.5 points it has scored already this season, having been unfortunate to miss out in the Brazilian Grand Prix when Jarno Trulli was involved in an accident while challenging for another podium finish. However, the Italian racer is eager to end the season on a high.

"It's been an up-and-down season for us with such a strong start followed by some disappointing races in Europe then a really competitive end to the year,” he said. “As Abu Dhabi is a new track it's impossible to predict how we will perform but after the speed we showed in the last three races I am confident of finishing the year on a high. I was extremely frustrated to be eliminated by an accident in Brazil because we had looked very quick all weekend and I genuinely believe we had a fantastic chance of finishing on the podium. So I am confident for this weekend and I am really motivated to get another great result before the season ends. Abu Dhabi looks like another fantastic new venue and I am really interested to see what the track is like to drive so I can't wait for practice to begin on Friday."

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Carling Cup: Expert Picks

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Where are the experts putting their money in tonight's Carling Cup matches?

Carling Cup matches on Tuesday, 27 Oct
Barnsley v Man Utd, R4, 19:45
Portsmouth v Stoke, R4, 19:45
Sunderland v Aston Villa, R4, 19:45
Blackburn v Peterborough, R4, 20:00
Tottenham v Everton, R4, 20:00

BetRepublic Betting

Tottenham v Everton
3pts Tottenham to beat Everton at 4/6 with Eurobet, Bet365 and Blue Square

Portsmouth v Stoke
1pt on Stoke to beat Portsmouth at 11/4 with BetFred and Skybet

Barnsley v Man Utd
0.5pt on Draw/Barnsley half-time/full-time at 16/1 with Eurobet and Bet365

Betting Zone Betting

Barnsley v Man Utd
1pt Barnsley to beat Man Utd at 13/2 (Sportingbet, Blue Square)

Sunderland v Aston Villa
2pts Sunderland to beat Aston Villa at 6/4 (BetUK)

Racing Post Betting

Barnsley v Man United
Barnsley, 1pt 13-2 Blue Square

Portsmouth v Stoke
Stoke, 1pt 12-5, Bet365, Eurobet

Spreadwise
Buy Tottenham v Everton goals, 5pts at 2.9, Sporting Index

Betting.Betfair Betting

Barnsley v Man Utd:
Lay Man Utd @ 1.5 in Match Odds market.
Back Barnsley/Barnsley @ 15.0 in Half Time/Full Time market
Back Any Unquoted @ 6.0 in Correct Score market

Carling Cup: Expert Picks

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Where are the experts putting their money in tonight's Carling Cup matches?

Carling Cup matches on Tuesday, 27 Oct
Barnsley v Man Utd, R4, 19:45
Portsmouth v Stoke, R4, 19:45
Sunderland v Aston Villa, R4, 19:45
Blackburn v Peterborough, R4, 20:00
Tottenham v Everton, R4, 20:00

BetRepublic Betting

Tottenham v Everton
3pts Tottenham to beat Everton at 4/6 with Eurobet, Bet365 and Blue Square

Portsmouth v Stoke
1pt on Stoke to beat Portsmouth at 11/4 with BetFred and Skybet

Barnsley v Man Utd
0.5pt on Draw/Barnsley half-time/full-time at 16/1 with Eurobet and Bet365

Betting Zone Betting

Barnsley v Man Utd
1pt Barnsley to beat Man Utd at 13/2 (Sportingbet, Blue Square)

Sunderland v Aston Villa
2pts Sunderland to beat Aston Villa at 6/4 (BetUK)

Racing Post Betting

Barnsley v Man United
Barnsley, 1pt 13-2 Blue Square

Portsmouth v Stoke
Stoke, 1pt 12-5, Bet365, Eurobet

Spreadwise
Buy Tottenham v Everton goals, 5pts at 2.9, Sporting Index

Betting.Betfair Betting

Barnsley v Man Utd:
Lay Man Utd @ 1.5 in Match Odds market.
Back Barnsley/Barnsley @ 15.0 in Half Time/Full Time market
Back Any Unquoted @ 6.0 in Correct Score market

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Venus Williams and Serena Williams are ready for retirement?

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Venus Williams and her sister, Serena Williams, will be participating at the WTA Championships in Doha where they said in an interview that retirement is not an option.

Venus and Serena not only made it into the championships in singles but also in doubles.

“Singles is something which I usually expect at the end of the year to be here. But doubles, that’s not something I expect. So it’s definitely exciting,” said Venus.

“It was kind of a secret goal of Serena and I to get to the doubles here.”

“Serena and I are playing at a level that would keep us here for quite a few years longer. This is very good news for us,” added Venus.

“At the end of the year, I’m feeling like I’m ending on a high note.

“I’m at the point in my career where I’ve been very successful at every tournament just about, almost on every surface. For me it’s about obviously playing great tennis, adding to my repertoire, my game, continuing to get better, to enjoy the challenge while being on top.” she said.

Serena said she is feeling very determined to keep playing, an ambition fuelled by reaching world number ranking again.

“I’m feeling good. I actually feel way more energized than I did last year, so that’s a good thing,” said Serena.

“I think as I get older, my priorities change more towards tennis. I want to play more. I want to enter more tournaments. I want to play more doubles. I think my career has been really more focused onto tennis.”

Find our more tennis betting strategies, betting picks & previews at BetRepublic.com.

Monday, October 26, 2009

UFC 104 Betting Picks: Machida vs. Shogun

Machida's skill and mastery out-class Shogun's aggressive muay thai. Machida over Shogun. At -405 I won't be betting on this one.

- Rothwell is my dog pick for this event. Valesquez is a rising star, but Rothwell's experience may actually be the difference here. Underdog pick is Rothwell at +235.

- I like Stevenson's chances against Fisher. Although Fisher could win this standing up, Stevenson will likely get Fisher to the ground and control the fight. I expect this one to go to a UD for Stevenson. I'm with the UFC betting odds makers here. Stevenson at -245 is a fair bet.

- Remember Yoshida eating Koschek's fists then being carried out of the cage on a stretcher? Johnson surely does. Many think this fight will be a replay as Johnson is being seen as a stronger, more physical fighter capable of KO'ing Yoshida. If it goes to the ground, Yoshida is favored. The problem is that Johnson is strong enough put off the takedown. I'm going with odds on this one. Johnson is -315. A small dog on Yoshida at +255 was being considered though.

- Okami's favored at -225 to Sonnen's +185 line. I believe this is Okami's third straight under card bout. He was once very close to getting a title shot with Silva until he broke his hand. Cote got the nod instead. Okami's winning again, but maybe not in a way that puts him in the "entertainment" column. Okami's got to dominate and destroy in order to get to the main card. Sonnen's a great match-up. Ultimately, this could end up in a decision.

- The Barry/Hardonk match-up could end with one of the fighters getting his walking papers. Reach and experience do go to Hardonk. Barry's 1-1 UFC, while Hardonk's 4-3 UFC. Lines are -110 for Barry, -120 for Hardonk. Barry's still fighting at heavyweight at 5'11". Personally, I'm staying away from this one. Barry should have too. (Sidenote: this could be a stand-up, leg-kick brawl - TKO on the way.)

- Darth Bader returns from a MCL and PCL knee injury from this April. The TUF 8 LHW winner, Ryan Bader, is heavily favored over Eric Schafer. At -435 for Bader and +355 for Schafer, you can see what the sportsbooks think of Schafer's chances. I agree.

Check out BetRepublic.com for all the most updated UFC 104 Betting odds and the UFC 104 Betting picks.

UFC 104 Betting Picks: Machida vs. Shogun


Machida's skill and mastery out-class Shogun's aggressive muay thai. Machida over Shogun. At -405 I won't be betting on this one.

- Rothwell is my dog pick for this event. Valesquez is a rising star, but Rothwell's experience may actually be the difference here. Underdog pick is Rothwell at +235.

- I like Stevenson's chances against Fisher. Although Fisher could win this standing up, Stevenson will likely get Fisher to the ground and control the fight. I expect this one to go to a UD for Stevenson. I'm with the UFC betting odds makers here. Stevenson at -245 is a fair bet.

- Remember Yoshida eating Koschek's fists then being carried out of the cage on a stretcher? Johnson surely does. Many think this fight will be a replay as Johnson is being seen as a stronger, more physical fighter capable of KO'ing Yoshida. If it goes to the ground, Yoshida is favored. The problem is that Johnson is strong enough put off the takedown. I'm going with odds on this one. Johnson is -315. A small dog on Yoshida at +255 was being considered though.

- Okami's favored at -225 to Sonnen's +185 line. I believe this is Okami's third straight under card bout. He was once very close to getting a title shot with Silva until he broke his hand. Cote got the nod instead. Okami's winning again, but maybe not in a way that puts him in the "entertainment" column. Okami's got to dominate and destroy in order to get to the main card. Sonnen's a great match-up. Ultimately, this could end up in a decision.

- The Barry/Hardonk match-up could end with one of the fighters getting his walking papers. Reach and experience do go to Hardonk. Barry's 1-1 UFC, while Hardonk's 4-3 UFC. Lines are -110 for Barry, -120 for Hardonk. Barry's still fighting at heavyweight at 5'11". Personally, I'm staying away from this one. Barry should have too. (Sidenote: this could be a stand-up, leg-kick brawl - TKO on the way.)

- Darth Bader returns from a MCL and PCL knee injury from this April. The TUF 8 LHW winner, Ryan Bader, is heavily favored over Eric Schafer. At -435 for Bader and +355 for Schafer, you can see what the sportsbooks think of Schafer's chances. I agree.

Check out BetRepublic.com for all the most updated UFC 104 Betting odds and the UFC 104 Betting picks.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Baseball Betting Picks: Angels win Game 5, Get Back New York

The Los Angeles Angels cut into the New York Yankees lead in the ALCS with a 7-6 win in Baseball Betting Picks Game 5 Thursday night.

The Angels got to A.J. Burnett early, piling up four hits and four runs in the first innings. Burnett walked lead off batter Chone Figgins on five pitches, gave up a double to Bobby Abreu and an 2-RBI base hit to Hunter. Guerrero doubled, Morales singled and the Yankees were quickly down by four.

John Lackey pitched six scoreless innings but found trouble in the seventh. With one out, he gave up a double to Melky Cabrera and back-to-back walks to Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter. That brought the hook for Lackey.

The bullpen couldn't stop the bleeding, and in fact made it worse, giving up a double to Mark Teixeira, an RBI-single to Hideki Matsui and a triple to Robinson Cano. The Yankees had turned a four-run deficit into a two-run lead in one inning.

Not ready to call it a season just yet, the Angels rebounded quickly, chasing Burnett from the ball game with a lead-off base hit from Jeff Mathis and a walk from Erick Aybar. This time it was the Yankees bullpen that couldn't get the job done, giving up another walk, two more hits and ultimately the lead in the game.

Abreu grounded to first to score Mathis, Guerrero singled to center to plate Aybar and Morales dropped a ball in right field to bring home Hunter and put the Angels back on top for good.

Los Angeles went to Jered Weaver for the eighth and Brian Fuentes for the ninth. Weaver was perfect while Fuentes walked a couple and hit another to load the bases but got Nick Swisher to ground out for the save. Kevin Jepsen got the win for getting the final out in the top of the seventh.

The win sends the series back to New York this weekend. In Baseball Betting Picks Game six is set for Saturday with Joe Saunders taking the mound for Los Angeles against Andy Pettitte.

Saunders started Game 2 for the Angels and allowed just two runs over seven innings but left with the game tied. Pettitte started Game 3 for the Yankees and gave up 3 runs on seven innings and also didn't figure in the decision.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Premier League Show for 24-25 Oct 2009, Premier League Picks

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BetRepublic Premier League Preview Show for 24-25 Oct 2009

It’s another busy weekend of football at online sports betting community. Members of fast-growing sports betting community are looking forward to a great weekend of football.

Sunday sees the annual "grudge match" between Liverpool and Man Utd which normally provides sports bettors with several very exciting betting prospects.

Where is the betting value to be had? The answers are provided by former professional footballer Steve Claridge and football betting expert James Eastham, who guide BR members through each game of top flight football in their weekly Premier League Preview Show.

On every match bookmaker’s price up over 100 betting markets which can be a bit of a minefield for sports bettors. But there is always a great value bet to make and this is where Steve and James come in. They are able to use their knowledge and insight into the game to select the bets they think make the best sense to football bettors.

"We trawl the entire market for the best bets to make," says Eastham. "There is always a smart play to make and we usually manage to root out the value."

Punters who have followed Eastham and Claridge's picks every week so far in the 2009/10 season have made a decent profit to level stakes.

Below are the matches they are covering in their Premier League Preview Show this weekend. BR members can log on to bet republic to see the show from 10pm on Thursday evening.

They can also view 3-minute previews for each game on our YouTube channel at www.youtube.com/slicker66.

SATURDAY, 24 OCTOBER 2009

BIRMINGHAM v SUNDERLAND

Birmingham have lost three games in a row and five of their last six

Blues have scored in their last four and in five of their last six as well

Sunderland’s home form is a lot better than their away form – they’ve won their last four home matches but picked up just one point from their last possible nine on the road

Recommended Bets:

Sunderland +0 Asian handicaps (17/20)

Under 2.5 goals (4/5)

BURNLEY v WIGAN

Burnley’s home form has been magnificent this season – four wins out of four, including victories over Man Utd (1-0) and Everton (1-0)

Wigan have been unpredictable but their away form has been consistently poor – since their opening-day 2-0 win at Aston Villa they’ve lost at Everton (1-2), Arsenal (0-4) and Hull (1-2)

Recommended Bets:

Draw (12/5)

Both teams to score (4/6)

CHELSEA v BLACKBURN

Chelsea have lost two of their last three league games but have a 100% home record – victories over Hull (2-1), Burnley (3-0), Tottenham (3-0) and Liverpool (2-0)

Blackburn really need to improve on the road – they’ve lost three out of three against Sunderland (1-2), Everton (0-3) and Arsenal (2-6)

Chelsea have won four and drawn one of the last five head-to-heads, scoring 13 goals in the process while conceding just two

Recommended Bets:

Blackburn +2 Asian handicap (4/5)

Both teams to score (7/5)

HULL v PORTSMOUTH

This is a vital clash between two sides caught in the relegation zone

Hull’s two wins this season have come at home to lowly opposition – 1-0 v Bolton and 2-1 v Wigan

Portsmouth’s only win of the season came in their last away game, 1-0 at Wolves

Both games ended in draws between the sides last season – the final score in Hull was 0-0, and the result in Portsmouth 2-2

Recommended Bets:

Portsmouth +0 Asian handicaps (21/20)

Under 2.5 goals (17/20)

TOTTENHAM v STOKE

Spurs’ nine league games this season have all had over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in seven of those games, with Tottenham managing to keep a clean sheet only once, v Burnley (5-0)

Stoke have won just two out of 23 away games since promotion to the Premier League last season. They’ve drawn three out of four on the road this season (v Birmingham, Bolton and Everton)

Recommended Bets:

Over 3 goals (21/20)

Both teams to score (4/5)

WOLVES v ASTON VILLA

Wolves lost their last home game v Portsmouth (0-1) having gone W1-D1-L1 at home before that

Six of Wolves’ nine league games have had under 2.5 goals

Villa have won five and drawn one of their last seven league games, including victories over Liverpool (3-1) and Chelsea (2-1)

Recommended Bets:

Aston Villa (6/5)

Aston Villa to win to nil (13/5)

SUNDAY, 25 OCTOBER 2009

BOLTON v EVERTON

Bolton are still seeking their first home win of the season. They’ve lost twice (0-1 v Sunderland and 2-3 v Liverpool) and drawn their last two at home (1-1 v Stoke and 2-2 v Tottenham)

Everton have drawn their last two games v Wolves and Stoke (both 1-1) at home – but won their last away game, at Portsmouth (1-0)

Everton have an excellent record at the Reebok – they’ve won four, drawn four and lost just two of 10 games in the Premier League era

Recommended Bets:

Draw (12/5)

Both teams to score (7/10)

LIVERPOOL v MAN UTD

Liverpool has already lost four league games this season and are seven points behind league leaders Man Utd

Liverpool did the double over Man Utd last season, winning 2-1 at Anfield and 4-1 at Old Trafford

That was Rafa Benitez’s first home win over United since taking charge – Liverpool had lost three and drawn one of their previous four league meetings at Anfield with the Spaniard in charge

All four of those head-to-heads leading up to Liverpool’s 2-1 win last season had under 1.5 goals

Recommended Bets:

Draw (12/5)

Over 2.25 goals (17/20)

MAN CITY v FULHAM

Games between these two teams in Manchester are nearly always high-scoring – six out of eight Premier League head-to-heads have had over 2.5 goals, with four of those games having over 3.5 goals and both teams scoring in seven of the eight clashes

Man City has won three out of three at home this season – 1-0 v Wolves, 4-2 v Arsenal and 3-1 v West Ham

Fulham have won one, drawn one and lost two of their four away games

Recommended Bets:

Man City -1 Asian handicap (19/20)

Over 2.5 goals (19/20)

WEST HAM v ARSENAL

The Hammers lie next to bottom in the table, having lost four and drawn one of their last five league games

Arsenal’s form couldn’t be more different – they’ve won four games on the run since their 4-2 defeat at Manchester City, beating Wigan (4-0), Fulham (1-0), Blackburn (6-2) and Birmingham City (3-1)

Arsenal has an excellent record at Upton Park – they’ve won seven, drawn five and lost just two of the 14 head-to-heads between the sides in the Premier League era

Recommended Bets:

West Ham +1 Asian handicap (11/10)

Under 2.75 goals (19/20)

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Horse Racing Picks: Howard Johnson Hopes For Tidal Revival

In latest horse racing picks, Howard Johnson hopes a breathing operation can help Tidal Bay return to his best at Aintree on Saturday.

His stable star runs in the tote ten to follow Old Roan Chase and the trainer is expecting a big run.

"We are looking forward to getting Tidal Bay back on the racecourse. We had him hobdayed through the summer and we are hoping that has tidied him up. I would say at the minute that he will probably be our standard bearer this year," said Johnson with sports betting community.

"He jumped a few fences indoors on Monday morning and looked good. He'll school outdoors if it keeps drizzling like it is now and he will have a piece of work with Denis O'Regan up, probably on Tuesday. If I'm happy and the ground is alright, we'll go to Aintree.

"He is training well and we'll weigh him on Wednesday. He actually looks like he's carrying a lot more condition this year, which is good because he always looks Gorky."

Johnson is pleased with the form of his stable at present, which boasts a 33% strike rate this month, with nine wins from 27 runners.

He said: "The horses in horse racing betting generally are alright, I'm happy enough with them, it's just that we haven't been able to get on the grass yet. The ground has been too firm and the racecourses don't help us trainers in the north east because they won't let us work our horses on the tracks."

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Will Shogun's muay thai defeat Machida's karate? - UFC Betting

UFC 104 Machida Vs Shogun Match Preview & UFC Betting Picks

Mauricio Shogun Rua wants Machida's LHW Belt.

Mauricio Shogun Rua used to rumble through pride opponents with sheer aggression. TKO's by soccer kicks and stomps. Come on! Shogun rocked people. He won the PRIDE Fighting Championship's 2005 MW Grand Prix. If one of Shogun's matches went to the later rounds he could even pull out a submission victory. In his first 18 fights only two went to the final bell and Shogun came out victorious. Both wins were by unanimous submission.

Shogun is a powerful, pressing muay thai striker and a BJJ black belt who will punch your head off or kick you on the ground until you quit or the referee saves you. That is Shogun.

Before joining the UFC, Shogun's list of victims, and I don't use the word lightly, include Evangelista Santos, Akihiro Gono, Quinton "BA Baracus, I'm done fighting" Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeem (x2), Ricardo Arona, and Kevin Randleman. Many of these top level men were punished. This is the Shogun the UFC signed, this is the Shogun the UFC fans wanted and expected. What they got was something different.

The problem was that Shogun has knees, and sometimes they don't always hold together. Shogun's knee injury during training did not allow for a competitive camp and he lacked the fitness to compete against Forrest Griffin. After losing the first two rounds, Shogun ultimately succumed to a rear-naked-choke in the final seconds of the third round. Shogun looked exhausted. His fans slumped in their chairs and looked bewildered. I remember that. I can accept the injury excuse/reason. It really didn't look like Shogun. There was also the fact that it was his first fight under the Unified Rules of MMA, which include no kicks and knees to the head of a downed opponent. Injured, out of shape and lacking weapons. Shogun looses the match and the chance to make a first impression on UFC fans that hadn't seen him before.

You can find all the UFC 104 previews, UFC 104 odds and UFC Betting Tips at BetRepublic.com

Shogun's next chance was also a chance to avenge his earlier loss to Mark Coleman. This time UFC fans had a chance to see two well known fighters almost not make it to the end of the fight due to exhaustion. "Fight of the Night" or not, nothing overly impressed me here except the fact that someone actually won before I fell asleep. I was beginning to wonder if Shogun was just collecting the cheques and finishing out a contract before retiring. Then came Liddell. The Iceman was out in the first round due to Shogun's big left hook and a flurry of hammer fists. This was getting back on track, even if it was against a fading Liddell.

So the question remains, do we get the original Shogun, or the lumbering, out of breath Shogun. My guess is that Shogun has had a full camp, he's fit and adjusted to the cage, and is more than ready for a title fight. He's too much a professional and too proud of a guy to take this fight anything less than completely serious. I expect a new and improved Shogun.

I expect Machida is expecting the same.

That may be Shogun's downfall against Machida. Shogun's aggressive style is exactly what a counter-puncher loves, and exactly what Machida is waiting for. I think Machida's accuracy and timing will prove to be too much for Shogun.

Shogun's coach, Andre Dida disagrees, "For the pace of fighting that Lyoto forces, always looking for the knockout, I think this fight won’t go past the third round. Shogun will knock out him in the 3rd round for sure. Shogun is going to be the unique guy to show the world how to beat Lyoto. Everyone will learn how to beat Machida so on."

UFC 104 Picks: Machida by TKO, later rounds.

Sorry Shogun.

Check out BetRepublic sports betting community for UFC betting tips & picks, and Sports Betting tips

Thursday, October 15, 2009

NFL Betting Picks: Bookies Report Card and ATS Summary

NFL Betting Picks is on its way in giving bookies report card and brief summary on ATS Roundups.

Minn @ St L: This was the number on favorite game of the NFL Betting public, getting mostly one-way action on Minnesota. Line opened at Minny -10 and closed at -11, with over 92% of the action on the Vikes. When the Vikings won by 28, it was a bad start to the day for the books. Line was off by 18 points and the house got killed on the game. GRADE: F

Dal @ KC: Line opened at Dal – 8 ½ and was bet all the way down to Dal -7. When the Cowboys had to come from behind to win in OT, the books took their second beating of the day. Line was only off by 2 ½, but with the Chiefs as the most popular dog of the day with the wagering public the house lost big again. GRADE: F

Wash @ Car: Line opened at Panthers -4 and closed at 5 ½. Carolina won, but only by 3 points so the house got a little back on this game. Line was off by only 1 point and the books made money on this one. GRADE: A

Oak @ NYG: Like the game above, the public did not think the dog was attractive at the opening number. Here, NY opened 15 ½ and closed -16’. Giants beat the NFL’s worst - the LA Raiders - by a whopping 37 points. Line was off by 21 ½. GRADE: F-

Ind @ Ten: Another bad number here. Indy opened at -3, the books too scared to go off that key number. The public jumped all over the visiting Colts against the winless Titans, and Indy won 31-9. Number was off by 19, the public, as is their tendency, jumped all over the favorite in the only game on the board, and the house got hit again. GRADE: F

NYJ @ Mia: Best game of the week for the bookies and the house, and it couldn’t come soon enough. The odds makers opened NY at -1 and the sports betting public was still buying into the Ryan-led Jets D as near-invincible theory – the Jets closed at -3 with a price on it! Miami was in control the whole way, emerging with a 4 point win. The opening line was off by 5, but the house, who could ill afford to end the week with another loser, profited nicely. GRADE: B


ATS Roundup - NFL Betting:

Four opening lines within 3 points of the final score. (Five week total at 13 of 76!)

SIX of fourteen games were off by ten or more points (five week total at 39 of 76.)

Favorites went 6-8 (five week total at 38-37-1.)

There were no flip-flops (games where teams opened as favs and closed as dogs). These are 4-0 on the season now.

Double digit dogs went 1-3 (five week total at 4-8.)

Home favorites went 4-4. (Five week total at 27-23-1.)

Home dogs went 4-2 (five week total at 13-12.)

NFC vs. AFC is 10-7 ATS

Totals: 7 overs 7 unders 1 push (five week total at 39 overs, 36 unders.)

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

NFL Week 5 Review - NFL Betting Tips & Picks

Looking at the updated NFL power rankings from ESPN.com, CBSSports.com and various other NFL focused sports sites, the top four teams are all the same across the board and the teams in that group, who played in Week 5, reinforced their standing at the top.

Week 5 in the NFL featured a number of games that had online sportsbooks serving up double-digit favorites. Advice from sports betting handicapping veterans will often tell you to avoid NFL betting big favorites, but this season in the NFL, parity doesn’t seem to be ruling the league, as when you look at the bottom of the standings, there are truly some of the worst teams in recent NFL memory.

The BetRepublic.com sports betting TV program on Thursday and Sunday looked at all the games, giving out their top NFL Betting Picks of the week, and breaking down each of the big games, including these big favorites.

The New York Giants were favored by 16 ½ points, even with Eli Manning nursing plantar fasciitis, but had no problem covering against the Raiders. The online sports betting public didn’t blink laying the big points, as the Giants were one of the most wagered on teams of the week.

NFL Betting Picks - Teams

The team who were the biggest public favorites was the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikes went into St. Louis as 10 ½ point favorites and they easily covered the spread as well. Not to be outdone, the Eagles were listed as 14 ½ point favorites at home to Tampa Bay, a game that produced yet another cover for the heavy chalk. That left the Pittsburgh Steelers as the only double-digit favorite that didn’t cover the number, as they beat the Detroit Lions by eight points (28-20) laying 10 ½.

The Giants are as good as any team in the league and should have been limited to ten guys on the field against Oakland. If the NFL followed the lead of the English Premier League and promoted and relegated teams in and out of the league to different divisions based on team success, then the Raiders would start next season in the CFL West division trying to man up against the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

The Giants outgained the Raiders 483-123 total yards. In their previous games, the Raiders have only accumulated 165 total yards against Houston, 137 against the Broncos, and even in their win against the Chiefs they were outgained 409-166. The Raiders need a makeover like no other team has ever before gone under the knife.

The Lions started to make their climb out of the basement by firing the coaching staff and ridding themselves of GM Matt Millen. The Raiders have the challenge of needing to get rid of its owner or at least his meddling influence. Al Davis is one of the great NFL owners of all time, but maybe it’s time he headed off to the lawn bowling courts and left his team up to some savvy football minds.

There was some concern that the Vikings might have a letdown after getting two big wins against the Packers and 49ers. Letdowns are common in the NFL after big games, and teams that by all accounts would usually spank an inferior opponent, do well to squeak by with a win in this kind of matchup. The Vikings have covered in every game this season and were well prepared to play up to their talent and not the Rams.

The Rams have scored only one offensive touchdown this season and have given up at least 35 points in three straight games. The Vikings jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and cruised to a 38-10 win to easily cover the 10 ½. A bright spot for the Rams was Marc Bulger getting into the game in the fourth quarter after being out with an injury for the last few weeks and going 7-7 for 88 yards and a TD. Bulger will probably play next week in Jacksonville in a scintillating matchup.

The Vikings host the Ravens next week presenting their toughest test to date. The Bengals in Baltimore surprised the Ravens in a game to decide first place in the division. The Ravens were almost double-digit favorites with the line as high as 9 1/2.

The last second TD from Carson Palmer to Andre Caldwell could well have been a statement moment for Palmer. He is still trying to reclaim his status as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He has now guided the Bengals to four wins in a ‘cardiac kids fashion.’ The Bengals have won their last three games by three points and have a penchant for last minute heroics. A bigger surprise than their defense or Palmer’s re-emergence is that running back Cedric Benson leads the league in rushing. The Bengals are for real having dispatched the Steelers and the Ravens and Pack on the road.

The Eagles got Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook back from the infirmary in time to torch the Buccaneers 33-14. McNabb finished 16 of 21 and his QB rating of 157.2 was the second highest in his career and also led the team with 30 yards rushing. If McNabb stays healthy, the Eagles will start to put up some big numbers in coming weeks. Philadelphia travels to Oakland next week in a game that you might want to keep the children out of the room.

All four teams that had a bye the previous week won their games in Week Five with the Panthers downing the Redskins 20-17, the Falcons throttling the 49ers 45-10 and the Cardinals hanging on to beat Houston 28-21. The Panthers were the only team that didn’t cover the line as they were posted as 3 ½ favorites. The Saints, Bears, Packers and Chargers had a bye this week and should be considered as good opportunities to win in Week Six.

The Denver Broncos still continue to stun the NFL after its last minute and overtime heroics against the Patriots. Josh McDaniels might not get a sniff at coaching in a lot of high school programs because of his age and relative lack of experience and yet he and his Broncos are the leagues biggest surprise and will be a force to be reckoned with before all is said and done. The Broncos should have had to play with leather helmets to match the pre-WWII uniforms. No matter what they’re wearing, McDaniels schooled his mentor and has surged to the front for Coach of the Year honors.

Jacksonville and the 49ers were both exposed this week suffering blowout losses. All is good in Seattle with the return of underrated QB Matt Hasselbeck. He threw four TD’s and looked in complete control against the Jaguars. The embarrassing loss by the 49ers to Atlanta allows both the Seahawks and Arizona back in the race in the West. As long as Seattle can dress Hasselbeck they have a shot at the division title.

The Colts and Peyton Manning finished off the Sunday card, putting on a clinic in their win over the Titanics. The only good news for the rest of the league is that Manning tweaked his knee. The bad news is that it isn’t serious and he has a bye week to fully recover. The Colts will get some starters back after the bye including Bob Sanders, just in time to face off against the Rams. Any bets on Manning getting his 6th straight 300-yard game?

The season is rounding into form and it’s starting to shape up like a Manning versus Manning Super Bowl. Let the hype begin.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Sports Betting Line movement for Game of the day - Arkansas State at UL Monroe

Sports Betting Odds makers opened this game as a pick 'em but the Red Wolves have been bet up to -2.

Sports Betting Measuring Sticks For Today’s Game:

ASU – picked to finish second in the sub belt this season - is just 1-3, but its losses have come against Nebraska, Troy and Iowa. The Hawkeyes narrowly held off the Red Wolves, 24-21, 10 days ago.

Arkansas State ranks 48th in the country in rushing, 98th in passing, 46th in offensive scoring, 81st in total offense and is tied for 18th inside the red zone.

The ASU pass defense is its Achilles heel, ranking 107th in the country, allowing 266.5 yards per game. They have yielded 1027 yards on 82-for-117 and nine touchdowns over the last three games.

Monroe has a chance to improve to 3-0 in Sun Belt play, which would be big considering the team was picked to finish seventh in the league.

The Warhawks bring a double-deuce offense into this contest, averaging 208.6 yards rushing and 210 passing. They are averaging 37 points per game in Sun Belt play. ULM leads the Sun Belt in scoring and tallied 577 yards of offense against FIU in its last game.

Weather Update:
Warm temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, under cloudy skies, are expected at kickoff. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with an 80 percent chance of rain. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

Player Profiles:

Arkansas State senior QB Corey Leonard was 22-for-40 for 216 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the three-point loss at Iowa.

It prompted Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz to comment, "That quarterback is their catalyst, Leonard is a heck of a football player." Leonard has 44 career touchdown passes, leaving him just five shy of the school record.

ASU RB Reggie Arnold is bidding to become only the eighth 1-A player ever with four straight 1,000-yard seasons. Arnold has only had 74 yards on 22 carries the past two games and needs to produce more than that to balance his team's offense. He is still on pace for 1132 yards in the 12-game schedule.

Warhawks’ defensive end Alex Carrington, the preseason defensive player of the year in the Sun Belt, has just 11 tackles in four games, including a single sack.

ULM’s running game has improved vastly and QB Trey Revell is playing with a lot of confidence. The junior has thrown for more than 1,000 yards and four touchdowns, and has rushed for 185 yards and three touchdowns. His running ability adds another dimension to the offense that features strong skill players. Equally impressive is the fact ULM has given up just five sacks this season.

Junior RB Frank Goodin leads ULM with 461 yards rushing and eight touchdowns while senior WR Darrell McNeal leads ULM with 22 receptions and four touchdowns.

Coach’s chorus ULM coach Charlie Weatherbie on tonight’s game: "It's always been a very close football game, it seems. I'm not sure there has ever been a blowout one way or the other. I would expect no different in this ballgame. I think both teams are very evenly matched athletically and I compliment Arkansas State on how they played Iowa. I thought they played very, very well and had a chance to win the game."

Weatherbie went on to elaborate, "It's a very big game for us. It's step No. 3 in the Sun Belt race. It's going to be one of those games that comes down to who executes the best and whose fundamentals are better."

The Bottom Line For This Game:

Monroe is 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in this series, with the home team winning all four contests.

ASU is 12-2 ATS in games off back-to-back losses. Check out sports betting community for more information.