Thursday, February 25, 2010

UFC 111: UFC Odds and UFC Picks

UFC 111 Vera vs. Jones: UFC Odds and UFC Picks

UFC on Versus 1: Vera vs. Jones will take place on March 21, 1010. With the best lines right now putting Jones at -230 and Vera at +205, either of these are decent value and initially I'm leaning towards Jones to finish Vera, who himself hasn't been finishing many fights for awhile now.

Even though these are decent lines, I'm looking ahead for some match ups with better value. I'm finding them in UFC 111 on March 27, 2010.

Frank Mir (13-4) is at -138 odds over Shane Carwin. This is the best line on Mir right now. If you like him over Carwin, I'd think about getting in on this. In the least, you should pay close attention to this line as the fight approaches and make your move if the action starts to affect the lines. Carwin is serious about this fight, but the night should belong to Mir, especially if he shows up in the same condition for his last fight against Cheick Kongo. Remember the guillotine in the first round of UFC 107? I'm sure Kongo does. Mir wants the Lesnar fight next and shutting out Carwin will give him that chance. I'd like to see Mir/Lesnar go at it again too.

All that being said, I wouldn't count out Carwin. Before Mir showed up in shape and well conditioned in his last match, I was favoring Carwin on their eventual match-up. Shane Carwin's last win was a KO of Gabriel Gonzaga in the first round of their fight at UFC 96 on March 7, 2009. Ring rust may be an issue, but Carwin has a record of 11-0 with 6 wins by KO and 5 submission. He's undefeated and ready to make this his division. He is a serious, very focused guy. Some of the online sportsbooks have Carwin at +130 and his fans could find nice value in this underdog bet. Mir's been stopped by a strong wrestler who can throw a heavy punch...I'm watching those lines right now.

Compare this to George St. Pierre on the same card currently coming in at -800 at some sportsbooks and Dan Hardy at +569. The value on the boards right now is the Mir/Carwin match with Vera and Jones giving decent value at UFC on Versus 1 on March 21.

I start to look ahead like this if I'm waiting a few weeks for an event to happen. I start to look at the lines and watch the movement. I start focusing on what I think is good value and pay the closest attention to those match-ups. I then look more closely at the fighters and how I think they stack-up against each other. I then get my choices narrowed down and wait until I see something happening. Right now Jones and Mir are my guys. I’ll keep updating all my picks and the info in my Stadium at BetRepublic.com. Good luck with your picks.

1 comment:

LDUTheCoach said...

honestly cant wait for GSP to shut up Dan Hardy.. Dan Hardy is NO
competition for GSP and quite frankly he was lucky to beat Mike Quick
Swick ... Thiago Alves is a better competitor that Dan Hardy.. Dan
Hardy is a JOKE!!

In depth preview for UFC 111 with predictions, pictures and
of course octagon girls.
http://www.lionsdenu.com/ufc-111-gsp-vs-hardy-mir-vs-carwin-preview-and-predictions/

Mir/Carwin Hardy/GSP is the best card we have seen since UFC 100 (the
last time GSP fought) and Hardy is talking lots of trash.
GSP is a heavy favourite and by all means should dominate YET again..
Carwin and Mir is gonna be ridiculous!! Think Carwin will knock him
out?