Thursday, April 22, 2010

2010 NFL Draft Odds

If you haven’t drawn up a mock draft board for the 75th NFL Draft which begins Thursday at 7:30 pm ET, don’t worry, there are already thousands of them littering the internet with details on exactly how the picks won’t go.

Betting on how the picks will play out offers a much better return on your investment and here ate we’re here to help you make a profit before training camp even begins.

Sam Bradford from Oklahoma and Jimmy Clausen out of Notre Dame are the top two quarterbacks available and the St. Louis Rams will pick first. Bradford seems like a lock for the No. 1 pick but anyone that’s been involved with sports betting for more than a season usually learns to avoid the ‘L-Word’ like the plague.

The prop for “Will Bradford go first: Yes (-1200), No (+550)” offers a healthy payback on the underdog option but what else do the Rams need? Defensive tackle would be a good start, and Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska) would help solidify a line that ranked in the bottom 5 of nearly every defensive category.

Remember, both Bradford (shoulder) and Clausen (toe) are coming off injuries. HC Steve Spagnuolo has indicated that drafting a QB is one of his top priorities but “Spags” is a defensive minded coach whose team’s problems are much deeper than the QB position. Suh would offer immediate returns for the Rams and to help solve their QB needs there is an experienced Super Bowl passer currently on the market by the name of Ben Roethlisberger.

Online sportsbooks also offer an Over/Under prop for total number of players at each position chosen in the first round and Offensive Lineman UN 8.5 (-150) is in the highest demand.

(No. 4) Washington, (No. 5) Kansas City and (No. 8) Oakland are three teams that are almost certain to tag big O-linemen with their first picks but in the 10-20 range for picks the priority shifts heavily back to defense.

Looking to the bottom third, HC Andy Reid has never hesitated to use a high draft on his O-line and the Cowboys also need line help after releasing Flozell Adams but making “Nine” still seems like a stretch. At the same time, laying -150 is too much risk so you are better off looking elsewhere for draft prop power.

You can scrap positional play altogether and simply bet the Over/Under on “Total number of offensive or defensive players selected in Round 1” but the offshore books have done their homework. Offensive UN 15.5 (-190) is priced out of range for this type of bet while defensive OV 16.5 (-180) is just as bad.

Player Picks

QB Jimmy Clausen UN 9.5 (-130): The Buffalo Bills pick 9th and need a QB in the worst way. Bradford will be gone by this point and Clausen fits the profile for a top draft pick.

OT Bryan Bulaga UN 7.5 (-120): As mentioned above there are three teams in the top 8 needing an O-lineman. The prices on Trent Williams OV 5.5 (-200) and Russell Okung UN 4.5 (-200) are high and leave little margin for error but when Okung goes 4th (WSH) to protect Donovan McNabb’s blindside, Bulaga will be a strong candidate for GM Scott Pioli’s system in Kansas City.

RB CJ Spiller is a potential candidate for Mike Holmgren in Cleveland (7th) but odds for Spiller UN 14th (-200) price him out of range.

The point of betting on events such as draft picks is almost recreational and buying into a bad number is never a good idea. Remember, the bookmakers have a hundred mock draft boards, too.

Experts are expecting one of the most interesting drafts in years and this will be the NFL’s primetime debut, which has helped stoke the fire. Research the options at your sportsbook and make sure the NFL Betting is worth the risk. As usual, there are sure to be plenty of surprises.

Check for more draft picks and daily free picks.

By Jarvis Simes

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